Federal Reserve Maintains Rates, Signals Future Cuts Amid Economic Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicate a slight increase in the forecast for real GDP growth up to 2028, primarily due to an increase in the expected potential output growth and improved financial conditions. The minutes predict that after 2025, as the impact of tariffs diminishes, GDP growth will exceed the potential level, with the unemployment rate gradually declining and stabilizing at a level slightly below the natural unemployment rate. Inflation forecasts are similar to those in September, with tariffs expected to push up inflation in 2025 and 2026, followed by a return to a disinflationary trend. These projections are subject to high uncertainty, influenced by factors such as labor market dynamics, inflation, policy changes, and data limitations.

Fed official Moussalem stated that the current monetary policy is closer to neutral than restrictive, with limited room for further easing. He emphasized that the inflation rate remains at 3%, necessitating continued pressure to control it, while also providing support to the labor market. Moussalem called for caution in future actions.

John Williams, a Federal Reserve official, stated that the monetary policy will remain tight to exert downward pressure on inflation. Despite the slowing of underlying inflation and a gradually softening labor market, reaching the 2% inflation target will take time. Short-term inflation expectations are slightly elevated, but long-term expectations have stabilized. Inflation is expected to remain high over the next two to three quarters, with tariff impacts being milder than anticipated. The risks of rising inflation have diminished, and while cutting interest rates would be prudent, it should be done cautiously. Policies should be data-driven, and there should be an openness to future rate cuts.

Deutsche Bank economists have increased their forecast for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 from two to three, citing a slowing labor market and declining inflation. The bank now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Previously, the bank had predicted rate cuts only in September and December.

In its June 2025 policy meeting concluding Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a level held since December 2024. This decision came amidst a complex economic backdrop featuring the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs, Middle East tensions, and mixed economic indicators including inflation and labor market data. While no immediate rate changes were enacted, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members indicated the likelihood of some rate cuts later this year, although opinions varied widely on the timing and magnitude of such reductions. According to meeting minutes released June 17-18, most officials believe modest tariff-induced inflation may be temporary, but they see potential for weakening economic growth and hiring, which could warrant monetary easing. The committee’s median forecast currently expects two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts this year, consistent with market pricing; however, shifts in a few members’ views could reduce that to just one. Inflation forecasts were revised upward, with the Fed increasing the expected price growth in 2025 from 2.7% to 3%, while economic growth projections were lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%. Labor market data revealed troubling signs such as continuing jobless claims rising to nearly 2 million, the highest since November 2021, alongside historically low hiring rates and declining labor force participation. Despite these warning signals, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized in line with prior remarks that the current policy stance remains appropriate without urgent action, stressing a “wait-and-see” approach while maintaining focus on inflation control. Market participants now largely price in the next interest rate cut for September, marking one year after an abrupt 0.5% cut executed in response to labor concerns. The Fed’s challenge remains balancing its dual mandate to sustain low unemployment and inflation amid the complex influences of tariffs and geopolitical risks. The central bank’s June outlook highlighted a stagflationary environment where inflation remains elevated while economic growth slows. Officials agreed continued caution is necessary as the economic outlook and inflation uncertainty persist. Overall, the Fed’s cautious tone and distribution of individual member projections reflect ongoing internal debates about future monetary policy, with clear consensus for holding steady now but openness to course corrections as fresh data arrives.