OPEC Revises Global Oil Market to Surplus, Citing Higher US Production and Increased OPEC Supply

In its latest monthly report, OPEC revised its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus, primarily due to higher-than-expected U.S. production and increased supply from OPEC itself. The report indicates that global oil production exceeds demand by 500,000 barrels per day, compared to a previous estimate of a 400,000-barrel-per-day shortage. Despite Saudi Arabia's efforts to accelerate the recovery of supply within the OPEC+ alliance to regain market share, the alliance members have agreed to pause further production increases in the first quarter of 2026, citing seasonal demand slowdowns. For 2026, OPEC predicts a relatively modest surplus in the market.

On Sunday, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. This decision is part of a broader effort by the organization to regain market share and reverse previous output cuts, amid concerns of potential supply disruptions related to Russia.

The output hike marks a full and early reversal of OPEC’s largest output cut in addition to a separate output increase for the United Arab Emirates. The combined increase amounts to about 2.5 million bpd, representing roughly 2.4% of global oil demand. The group began increasing output in April with a 138,000 bpd hike, followed by larger hikes: 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July; 548,000 bpd in August; and now 547,000 bpd for September.

OPEC explained in their post-meeting statement that the decision was influenced by a healthy economy and persistently low oil stocks. Despite rising production, oil prices remain elevated, with Brent crude closing near $70 per barrel on Friday, up from approximately $58 in April. Seasonal demand and stockpiling activities, particularly in China, have helped the market absorb the additional supply, according to Giovanni Staunovo of UBS.

OPEC+ consists of members from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as 10 non-OPEC producers, most notably Russia and Kazakhstan. The group, which controls about half of the world’s oil supply, has been curtailing output for several years but reversed course in 2024, partly due to calls from then U.S. President Trump for an increase in production.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for September 7, when the group may consider reinstating another output cut totaling around 1.65 million bpd, according to two OPEC sources. These cuts are currently set to remain until the end of next year. OPEC+ also maintains a separate 2 million bpd cut across all members, set to expire at the end of 2026.

Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy commented, "OPEC has passed the first test as it has fully reversed its largest cut without crashing prices. But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension."