Trump Administration Imposes 15% Revenue Fee on Nvidia and AMD AI Chip Exports to China

The U.S. government will require Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of revenue from certain AI chip sales to China as a condition for granting export licenses, according to confirmation from a Trump administration official. This arrangement, which applies to specific chip exports to China, marks an unprecedented move where a direct percentage of a company's revenue from sales to a specific country is collected by the government.

The two semiconductor companies agreed to the fee structure last week, as first reported by the Financial Times, citing individuals familiar with the matter. A statement from Nvidia responded to the report, saying: "We follow rules the U.S. government sets for our participation in worldwide markets. While we haven’t shipped H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will let America compete in China and worldwide."

The fee imposition comes after previous U.S. restrictions blocked certain Nvidia chips from being exported to China due to national security concerns. That export ban had cost Nvidia more than $10 billion in revenue, according to CEO Jensen Huang. The decision to allow resumed sales under the new fee arrangement follows meetings between company representatives and U.S. officials.

While this reversal is expected to benefit Nvidia financially, it has drawn concern from top Senate Democrats. In a letter sent Monday to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, they raised alarms over the decision to resume Nvidia AI chip sales to China.

The new policy applies only to the covered Nvidia and AMD AI chip products exported to China under license, with the fee set at exactly 15% of their China market revenue.

Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, announced that the company has received United States government approval to resume sales of its H100 artificial intelligence (AI) computer chips to China. This development follows a recent meeting between Huang and former U.S. President Donald Trump, which Huang described as a "monster win" for Nvidia. The approval marks the lifting or easing of prior restrictions that had limited Nvidia's ability to sell advanced AI technology to China. The H100 chip is a critical component powering AI applications and represents a significant technological asset in Nvidia's portfolio. The clearance allows Nvidia to continue its business operations and expansion in the Chinese market, which is a key region for technology adoption and AI development. This decision is particularly significant in the context of ongoing trade tensions and technological competition between the United States and China, where semiconductor technology is a focal point. Nvidia's access to the Chinese market could influence both its revenue growth and the competitive landscape of AI hardware. No specific timelines for resumed shipments were detailed, but the approval reflects a notable policy shift favoring increased technological trade with China. The company's dialogue with U.S. officials, epitomized by Huang's engagement with Trump, appears to have been instrumental in achieving this outcome.

Nvidia experienced a significant rally in its share prices on Tuesday morning following the announcement that the U.S. government will permit the company to resume exports of its powerful AI chips, specifically the NVIDIA H100 GPU, to China. This development is critically important for Nvidia, as CEO Jensen Huang has previously indicated that the U.S. export ban had cost the company over $10 billion in revenue. The news was confirmed in a company blog post published Monday, which stated that Nvidia is actively filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H100 GPU again, with assurances from the U.S. government that the necessary licenses to export the chip to China will be granted. The company hopes to start deliveries soon, pending approval timelines. This reversal in export restrictions has immediately buoyed Nvidia's shares, which climbed more than 5% in premarket trading on Tuesday, subsequently boosting the broader market. Nvidia’s market capitalization recently surpassed $4 trillion, highlighting its significant economic influence. The key elements remaining to watch include the speed at which the licenses are approved and the impact of resumed sales on Nvidia’s financial performance in upcoming quarters. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's meetings with U.S. government officials, including his discussions with former President Donald Trump, were instrumental in achieving this regulatory breakthrough, according to related reports. Overall, the lifting of export restrictions marks a major step for Nvidia's business operations in one of its largest and most strategic international markets, allowing it to reclaim substantial revenue previously lost due to the ban.

Nvidia Corporation has achieved a historic milestone, becoming the world’s first publicly traded company to reach a market valuation of $4 trillion. This landmark valuation was briefly surpassed on the Wednesday trading session, approximately one year after Nvidia first crossed the $3 trillion market cap threshold. The company’s extraordinary market surge has been significantly bolstered by a recent development involving its AI chip exports to China. Nvidia announced that the U.S. government will again permit the sale of its powerful NVIDIA H20 GPU AI chips to China, after a previous export ban had cost the company over $10 billion in revenue according to CEO Jensen Huang. This reversal is expected to have a substantial positive impact on Nvidia’s financial performance going forward. Shares of Nvidia jumped more than 5% during premarket trading following the announcement. In a blog post released on Monday, Nvidia stated that it has filed applications to resume shipments of the H20 GPUs and that the U.S. government assured them licenses would be granted soon, with hopes of starting deliveries promptly. CEO Jensen Huang, who recently engaged with U.S. officials including former President Trump to facilitate the approval, emphasized the importance of this resumption for Nvidia’s bottom line. The market’s reaction underscores the strategic significance of AI technologies and the global supply chain dynamics involved. Investors will be closely monitoring the timeline for license approvals and the anticipated positive impact on Nvidia’s upcoming financial results as the company leads the semiconductors sector amid rising AI demand.

Dan Ives, the global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, forecasted a significant market milestone for leading tech giants Nvidia and Microsoft in the summer of 2025. He predicts both companies will join the exclusive $4 trillion market capitalization club due to soaring investor appetite fueled by advancements and investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

According to Ives, Nvidia and Microsoft have rebounded remarkably this quarter after early-year concerns regarding China's export controls and global tariffs diminished in investors’ minds. Nvidia experienced a five-day rally recently, achieving a monthly gain of approximately 16% and a quarter-to-date gain near 44.5%, reaching about $3.83 trillion in market cap. Microsoft also enjoyed a four-day consecutive rally, with month and quarter-to-date gains of roughly 8% and 32.5%, respectively, resulting in a market cap near $3.69 trillion.

Ives emphasized Nvidia's central role in the AI revolution, describing it as "the foundation for the AI Revolution" and highlighting CEO Jensen Huang as holding the premier vantage point on enterprise AI demand and the widespread appetite for Nvidia’s AI chips. He estimated that for every $1 spent on Nvidia, there is an $8 to $10 multiplier effect across the broader tech ecosystem, including hyperscalers, cybersecurity, software, semiconductors, internet, autonomous vehicles, and robotics.

While Ives views Nvidia as the dominant AI chip provider, he also recognized major hyperscale cloud providers such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, noting that Google Cloud Platform and Amazon Web Services have gained momentum. Additionally, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is entering the AI growth cycle. Ives predicts that after reaching the $4 trillion market cap level this summer, Nvidia and Microsoft could potentially join the $5 trillion club within the next 18 months as the AI-driven tech bull market matures.

This outlook signifies the profound impact of AI innovation, capital expenditures in AI infrastructure, and shifting investor sentiment toward technology stocks. The forecast signals continued growth and leadership by companies heavily invested in AI, underpinning a transformative tech market trend. Ives encapsulated this by stating, "The AI Revolution... is the biggest tech trend we have seen in our 25 years covering tech stocks on the Street."

In 2025, Nvidia Corporation's stock has surged to record heights, reflecting the company's dominant position in the artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing unit (GPU) markets. On June 11, 2025, Nvidia's shares closed at a record $154.31, surpassing its previous high of $149.43 set on January 6. This rally comes despite significant challenges, most notably the U.S. government's export restrictions to China, the world's second-largest economy, which Nvidia estimates will cost it $8 billion in sales and caused a $4.5 billion write-off of existing inventory. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, confirmed the $50 billion Chinese market is effectively closed to the company due to these measures. Further export restrictions on AI chips are anticipated from the U.S. administration.

Nevertheless, Nvidia's business thrived in other areas. The company's May earnings report highlighted a 69% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by a 73% surge in the data center segment. For its fiscal year, analysts expect a 53% revenue rise, nearing $200 billion. Huang emphasized that beyond AI, robotics represents the next major growth field. Notably, Nvidia has evolved from a traditional chipmaker to an AI computing platform provider, as highlighted by Jim Cramer, pointing to Nvidia's software components like its CUDA programming platform and pretrained AI model libraries, which amplify the value beyond hardware alone. The company reached a market capitalization approaching $4 trillion, becoming the world's first to hit this milestone, largely fueled by the AI boom initiated by technologies such as ChatGPT.

Investors have shown some caution amid geopolitical risks and regulatory hurdles, notably the strained U.S.-China relations impacting sales. Nevertheless, Nvidia's strategic positioning in AI, data centers, and robotics, alongside strong customer capital expenditure commitments globally—including the Middle East—have kept investor confidence buoyant. Jensen Huang's remarks at Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting underscore the company's commitment to remaining at AI's forefront, solidifying its status as a dominant global technology leader despite significant international trade challenges.