Key Metrics
52.75
Heat Index-
Impact LevelMedium
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Scope LevelNational
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Last Update2025-09-10
Key Impacts
Positive Impacts (8)
Negative Impacts (2)
Event Overview
A decline in US producer prices indicates a cooling in wholesale inflation, impacting treasury yields. The data suggests a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, reflecting broader economic dynamics and market expectations.
Collect Records
US Producer Prices Unexpectedly Decline in August
US producer prices unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, marking the first drop since April. This cooling in wholesale inflation comes as the Federal Reserve prepares to make a decision on interest rates. Despite a 0.3% increase in prices from July and a 2.8% rise over the 12 months ending in August, wholesale inflation remains relatively stable, even with the implementation of President Trump's tariffs. The trade services category, which can be volatile, saw its largest monthly decline in over a year in August. Economist Christopher Rupkey notes that while overall price pressures are not yet surging, core producer goods prices are still rising significantly, indicating an ongoing inflation threat.
U.S. Treasury Yields Fall After PPI Data and Strong Auction Demand
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined, falling by 4 basis points to 4.676%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 3.531% following a surprise drop in August wholesale prices and strong demand at a government debt auction. The producer price index (PPI) fell 0.1% in August, contrary to the expected 0.3% increase. This data reinforced expectations for a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicating a 100% chance. The 10-year Treasury note auction saw strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65, above the average of 2.6. Indirect bidders, including global central banks, purchased 83.1% of the auction, significantly higher than the 70% average.