U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites Raise Concerns Over Oil Prices and Regional Stability

Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter price forecasts for Brent crude to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel, citing a sharp drop in Middle Eastern production. The firm also warned that global oil inventories are declining at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day, indicating higher economic risks than the baseline expectations.

The U.S. launched attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz—on Saturday, escalating tensions in the Middle East. The strikes, which followed President Trump's announcement on Friday that he would decide on an attack within two weeks, surprised investors who had anticipated further diplomatic efforts. In a speech on Saturday evening, Trump warned Iran of either peace or "tragedy far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days." Traders are now bracing for potential Iranian retaliation, with concerns focusing on possible attacks on U.S. personnel in nearby bases or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil trade route. A prolonged blockade of the strait could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China, Iran's largest oil customer, to intervene and prevent such a closure. Despite these risks, market reactions have been relatively subdued, with stock futures near flatline on Monday. Analysts like Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge noted that while geopolitical risks are elevated, Iran's weakened military capabilities and global oil supplies may limit the fallout. Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research highlighted the U.S. economy's resilience amid ongoing conflicts and policy changes. Consumer spending data for the month showed signs of weakness, according to JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane.