XRP Price Analysis: Downtrend Continues Amid Profit-Taking and Market Uncertainty

XRP, currently trading at $2.13 as of June 21, 2025, is experiencing a prolonged downtrend with a market capitalization of $125.52 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.83 billion. The price has fluctuated between $2.09 and $2.17, reflecting tight consolidation amid broader market uncertainty. The one-hour chart shows a muted recovery attempt after a sharp intraday drop to $2.085, but the price failed to break decisively above the $2.14-$2.15 resistance zone, indicating hesitant buying interest. The four-hour chart reinforces the short-term downtrend, which began at $2.34, with no definitive reversal structure emerging. The daily chart confirms a medium-term downtrend since the peak at $2.48, with weak bullish candles and diminishing volume suggesting a loss of momentum.

Key technical indicators present a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42.52, indicating neutral conditions, while the Stochastic oscillator (20.66) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI, -87.91) align with a neutral posture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.03300 signals a bearish bias. Moving averages uniformly tilt bearish across short to medium-term timeframes, with the 10-period EMA and SMA at $2.16671 and $2.16252, respectively, giving sell signals.

On-chain data reveals that XRP's most profitable investors are realizing over $68.5 million in profits daily, mirroring the behavior seen before the 2017 market top. Over 70% of XRP's realized market cap has formed since late 2024, making the market top-heavy and vulnerable to sharp selloffs. If selling continues, XRP risks a 35% decline toward the $1.35-$1.60 range. The average buy price for newer holders (3m-6m cohort) is $2.28, while the 6m-12m group averages $1.35, leaving them with a 35% downside cushion before breakeven.

The broader market context includes regulatory wins bolstering the XRP ecosystem, but profit-taking by early buyers and technical bearishness dominate the current narrative. A decisive bounce from the 50-week EMA could invalidate the downside setup, potentially enabling a climb toward $3 or above. However, until XRP breaks through $2.18 with strong follow-through, the trend remains skewed downward.